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Terry Lockett Property Management – Home / Fantasy Football / 2021 Fantasy Football / Fantasy Football Week 6 Buy-Low, Sell-High Using Expected Fantasy Points (2021)
I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes are highly correlated with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).
Terry Lockett Property Management
XFP essentially shows what a typical player has done with the odds that any player sees. For a more in-depth breakdown of projected fantasy points, click here.
New England Patriots
The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are not consistently producing the expected numbers. We see plenty of volume but have to buy players who are poor due to bad luck.
I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for each player based on a similar methodology. For tips on negotiating trades, click here.
Below, you can find projected fantasy points for each player through Week 5 along with their average carries, targets and air yards.
See the PDF Download and EXCEL Download links if you want to browse the data that way. The Excel download link contains individually sortable data for 1-4 weeks.
Game Script Performances For Fantasy Football
Scroll below the chart to find specific players I’m looking to buy and sell high this week.
Claypool’s biggest problem in his short career has been a lack of snaps. He only ran 31 of Ben Roethlisberger’s 42 pass attempts, while Juju Smith-Schuster and Deonte Johnson ran 42 and 41 routes in Week 2, respectively. Despite sitting on the bench for nearly 25% of his pass attempts, Claypool still saw 9 targets and 194 air yards. If Deonte misses time, Claypool should start running routes on almost 100% of the passing plays, which would greatly increase his ceiling.
In the one game Johnson missed, Claypool played 92% of the snaps, caught 9 of 15 targets for 96 yards and 25.7 expected fantasy points. He’s going to become a bit more expensive now that Juju is guaranteed to miss the entire season, but Claypool is once again locked into an every-down role.
Claypool only averaged a 67% snap rate in three games with a healthy Zuzu and Johnson, but he’s still averaging 16.1 expected fantasy points per game, 17th among receivers. This number is almost guaranteed to increase with a larger character, making Claypool significantly lower.
Fantasy Football Week 7: Start And Sit
You probably won’t get a huge discount, but Terry McLaurin is a receiver I’d be willing to pay on the trade market. He’s averaging 10 targets and 118 air yards this season, and he’s currently the WR9 in projected fantasy points. McLaurin was quiet in Week 5, but his workload was better than usual as he saw 11 targets and 163 air yards.
Managers should be comfortable after this performance, but the allure of someone like Ja’Mar Chase is likely to entice someone to move on from McLaurin. Chase currently sits at WR8 compared to McLaurin at WR14, but McLaurin’s extra 3 targets and 4.4 expected fantasy points give me confidence that McLaurin will be more valuable this season. These two players are next to each other in the current FantasyPros ECR, but McLaurin is underrated due to his exceptional workload.
Brandin Cooks was another disappointing receiver in Week 5. However, his future outlook still looks bright. Cooks faced a tough matchup against Bill Belichick and the Patriots in Week 5, and Belichick was sold to stop the opposing team’s top receiver.
Cooks saw a season-low five targets, but the offense finally showed signs of life as quarterback Davis Mills threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns. As Cooks saw a 36.7% target share in the previous two games Mills started, Belichick’s scheme may have resulted in a lower target share. Starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor is nearing his return from a hamstring injury, which should help Cooks, but if Mills can avoid the disaster of his first two starts, Cooks will see more opportunities to produce this time around.
Fantasy Football Trade Value 2022 Updated Rankings
Damien Williams was solid in place of David Montgomery in Week 5. On the surface, 16 carries, three targets and 17.0 projected fantasy points look like numbers you can count on until Montgomery misses time. However, teammate Khalil Herbert outscored Williams 34-to-31 and led the team with 18 carries.
The Bears led the Lions for most of the game, so Williams saw plenty of chances despite the splitting touches. However, the Bears will have to play the Packers and Bucs next, two games they will have to come from behind. If Herbert continues to steal touches, Williams probably won’t see enough volume to be relevant over the next two games. Your league-mates won’t know a split backfield just by looking at Williams’ numbers, so see if you can use his solid numbers and send him to an RB-needy team for a different piece.
Dawson Knox finished as the TE4 in Week 5 mainly due to a long touchdown and sits at TE4 in PPR for the season. His production came mainly in the form of touchdowns. He leads all tight ends with five scores on the season.
Although Knox posted impressive results, he averaged just 4.8 goals per game, which ranked 16th at the position. To his credit, his targets were relatively high-value, and four of them came inside the 10-yard line. Knox scored on two of these four targets, but all of his targets still only added up to an expected 2.5 touchdowns on the season. Regression is likely in the touchdown department, and Knox is behind Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley in the target pecking order. Unless he significantly increases his target size, Knox’s current numbers are unsustainable.
Seahawks All Time Fantasy Mock Draft: Rounds 16 20
That’s all I have for week 5. Now that you’re a projected fantasy points expert, you can use the tool to dominate your league. Check out my trade value chart, which also includes projected fantasy points data, and check back next week for more players to buy low and sell high. Please send any questions or feedback to @RSJ_Jackson on Twitter!site: media |Arena: nfl | Page Type: Stories | Section: | Slug: nfls-top-10-undrafted-free-agents-tamorrion-terry-ardarius-washington-at-top-based-on-talent-situation | Sport: Football | Path: article_single_special | 6-Keys: media/spln/nfl/draft/free/stories
NFL’s Top 10 Undrafted Free Agents: Tamorion Terry, Ar’Darius Washington Top by Talent, Situation
The 2021 NFL Draft is over and so is the chaotic undrafted free-agent period. So it’s time for the undrafted free agent rankings. By now, everyone knows that UDFAs will eventually make names for themselves, and we were given a reminder during the Super Bowl: Buccaneers star pass rusher Shaq Barrett decommitted from Colorado State in 2014.
Let’s rank this year’s class of UDFAs based on talent, as well as situation, which is crucial for these players.
Cme Group Inc. 2021 10k
Terry Russell was born to play for the Wilson-led Seahawks. Stylistically, the 6-foot-3, 207-pounder is almost like DK Metcalf — take him on vertical routes and let him run past corners with his deceptive speed, then spot Wilson’s moon balls down the field.
The quarterback and offensive line play at Florida State held Terry back in the production department, but the tall speedster averaged 20 yards on 95 catches with 17 touchdowns in his first two seasons in Tallahassee. He’s a big play waiting for the Seminoles. Terry’s nearly 34-inch arms provide a huge catch radius, and while he’s not exactly a rebounder down the field, he knows how to guard smaller defensive backs with his body while keeping his feet in bounds on tight sideline throws.
With Metcalf and Lockett, Seattle has its top two wideouts, and they selected slot speedster De’Wayne Eskridge in the second round. But the Seahawks are more open to offering opportunities to late-round picks and undrafted free agents than most clubs, and apparently the front office wanted to add more explosiveness to an already electric receiver room. Terry fits in well as a low-volume, splash play creator in Seattle. You heard it here first. And don’t sleep on fellow UDFA receiver Cade Johnson. Some Doug Baldwin vibes with him.
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