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Mpc Property Management Portal – Every year since 1994, a national survey has been conducted that identifies the top-selling master-planned communities (MPCs) through a rigorous search of high-performing communities in each state. Every year we report the annual sales among the Top-50 communities at the end of the year, as well as publish this mid-year update report every July. For this mid-year 2022 report, we surveyed MPCs across the country to establish current rankings as an update to our
The chart above summarizes the list of the 50 best-selling communities through the first half of 2022, including a comparison of their home sales through the first half of 2021 where applicable. Sales in the Top-50 communities in Mid-Year 2022 decreased by 18% compared to the pace set in the first half of 2021, with developers continuing to cite supply chain issues and a lack of inventory, with in instances of reduced traffic from potential. buyers in recent months as high prices and rising interest rates continue to have an impact on consumer purchasing power. The Villages, an active adult community in Central Florida, is again the top selling community in the country with approximately 1,500 sales. Sarasota, Florida’s Lakewood Ranch claimed the top spot among all-age communities, with 1,026 sales. The Silverado of Dallas, Texas earned the third-place ranking in the first half of the year with 599 sales. Sunterra, located in Houston, Texas, ranked within the Top-10 for the first time this year due to a strong performance in the first half of 2022 that resulted in an eighth-place finish. Babcock Ranch, located in Southwest Florida, also entered the Top-10 for the first time, with a 14% increase in sales compared to the first half of 2021.
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, we report that sales among Top-Selling communities increased moderately in the first half of the year before slowing in the second half of 2021. Supply chain disruptions, labor market tightness, and cost increases are one of the most mentioned reasons for that moderate growth in 2021 sales, although optimism remains strong for 2022 because demand remains strong and market participants hope for timely solving supply chain problems. That optimism has not been rewarded and the slow pace of new single-family home sales continues through May of 2022, according to the latest data available. Now, the increase in mortgage rates, which have increased by 2% since the beginning of the year, shows that the softening we have seen in the new housing market may continue. With mortgage rates likely to remain in the 6% +/- range for the rest of the year and inflation still high, along with fears of a recession and low consumer confidence, housing demand is likely to cool further in the short term. that term.
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Despite this potential cooling-off, the attitudes of Master-Planned Community developers remain optimistic, and there are several reasons why this is the case. For one, while many consumers have been priced out of the new home market by rising rates and mortgage rates, pent-up demand from the remaining new home buyers is still substantial. The current situation of slowing sales can be considered a “pause” while consumers get used to higher prices. In some instances, builders have been noted to see this “pause” as a silver lining – using the period of slow sales as an opportunity to catch up on closings and build inventory.
Despite the slowdown in new sales, many developers remain optimistic because higher prices mean they are meeting budget despite lower sales. Nationally, the price of a new single-family home has increased by 15% since last year, and more than 40% since the start of the pandemic, as shown in the table below.
Many MPCs experienced increases in average new home prices that were greater than the overall market. For example, Lakewood Ranch reported new home price appreciation of 47% last year, while the regional average grew by only 22%.
“In my opinion, the Sarasota market and Lakewood Ranch in particular were undervalued as a prime home location prior to the pandemic. ‘Live where you vacation’ has become a driving decision for many buyers. at home, and I don’t see any change or less appreciated. We offer that in spades in Lakewood Ranch and the Tampa Bay region.
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Despite the near-term slowdown in new home sales in the MPC and the overall market, the fundamentals underlying new home demand for the longer term remain strong. In particular, as millennial households continue to enter their prime family-forming years in large numbers, a life stage that traditionally precedes single-family home ownership, the long-term demand for single-family housing is likely to remain stable. Additionally, these strong demand projections caused by demographic tailwinds are coupled with a housing environment that continues to be in short supply. If there is a recession, as some economists are predicting, it is important to remember that on average, in previous recessions, new home sales decreased by less than 10% – unless they fell they were a whopping 66% in the first year of the 2008 recession, under very different circumstances. While a recession may result from the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to curb inflation, the housing market is not as oversupplied as it was in 2008.
There remains an additional silver lining for master-planned community developers in the context of concerns about a possible recession. Historically, Master-Planned Communities have tended to increase their market share during times of economic turmoil, as shown in the graph below that compares the sales of the Top-10 master-planned communities in the country to total new sales from 2001 to 2022. the run-up to the Great Recession, as an example, MPC market share fell, then rose sharply when total sales the market fell. This is an example of “flight to quality” and perhaps a “flight to safety” where MPCs are considered a better, safer investment as well as a place to live in challenging times. in the economy.
Exactly when and how severe the next recession will be is impossible to predict. The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by GDP, although the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) considers other factors for the designation. in recessions. In the last 7 recessions, the timing and impact of the recession on residential real estate depended on the economic and political circumstances of the particular time period. Rising prices and mortgage rates have contributed to reduced housing affordability, and the potential exists for short-term reductions in permits, starts and new home sales. Because of underlying demographic trends that support long-term new housing demand, permits, starts, and new home sales are likely to rise sharply after a recession if there is one. , perhaps in mid to late 2023, although the timing is impossible to predict. The exact timing of any rebound depends on whether,
, a recession occurs. While it is important to recognize that the current slowdown is a short-term one, and the long-term future for the housing industry, and especially for home sales in Master-Planned Communities, where there is more demand than supply, tan – looks great. positive.
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The Mid-Year 2022 ranking of the 50 best-selling communities is based on total net new home sales as reported by each individual community. Preliminary sales numbers are provided to communities in mid-June and are pro-rated to arrive at estimated mid-year sales, with final sales numbers provided during the first weeks of July. , and in some cases updated periodically throughout the month. To be included in our ranking, MPCs must have several features. True MPCs are created from a comprehensive plan by a master developer, and include a variety of housing types, sizes, and prices, with shared common space, amenities, and an important public realm. The best examples of MPCs are created with a strong vision and comprehensive plan that guides development and integrates the community through distinctive signage, wayfinding, entry features, landscaping, and architectural/design standards. Beyond the built environment, MPCs distinguish themselves from typical suburban subdivisions because they provide a means of interaction among neighbors in the sense of the word “community.” They foster an environment where generations can live better in terms of housing and community environment, and many offer educational opportunities, shopping and neighborhood services, and even centers for employment to increase residential neighborhoods. Although rooted in a vision, the strongest MPCs have flexible master plans that are environmentally sensitive, market responsive, and nurture the lifestyles of their residents.
Due to the above criteria, we do not include the collective marketing of multiple, separate communities that are united only through marketing efforts rather than a preconceived notion of community, nor do we include communities that are a collection of subdivisions with few unifying elements other than consistent signage and name.
Article and research prepared by Gregg Logan, Managing Director, and Karl Pischke, Principal. Additional research support was provided by Shanren Brienan, Jameson Logan, and Blair Wheeler.
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